Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

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CraigB
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Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by CraigB » Tue 08 Jan, 2019 4:14 pm

This is actually a question from Giles on the facebook page....... but after being told categorically the only W116 worth collecting is the 6.9..... I remembered how much i like conversing on here! Also I can't seem to communicate in two word sentences like most people do on facebook!

"So you had some spare time lately to gaze into your crystal ball, now which MB model has bottomed out and now heading northward in value? We know a few have already but what’s your pick for 2019?"

This is the long version of my answer that i cut down for facebook:

Supply and demand and of course the car has to be desirable enough in the first place that people want one. And its not just a model, its condition also. So C126 or even 108 mentioned, there are still plenty of them around but proper good ones are definitely hard to find as reflected by peoples accounts of searching and of course how much it costs to fix things. But then there will still be plenty of demand for even a crappy W113. But the original question is what will be different, what will move differently in 2019. And not putting numbers on it - if a reasonable W116 is $5k and doubles to $10k, its a bit different to a Pagoda going from $150 to 300k! But I remember when 108's 'moved' and one day seemed like plenty of good cars could be had for sub $5k and then they quietly disappeared and then reappeared closer at more like $10k being the mark. So I'll say W116, but it won't make your rich! I bought a non-runner for less than the value of its parts (but for a particular part i wanted), got it running and its not a bad car at all - but then researched if it was worth me spending a bit of time on and i agree - very few of them around and some very cheap good looking cars. These are a grand old car with a feel of their own - what's a 3.5 W108 selling for? Even a good 560SEL.... so why is the only 450SEL on car sales asking $6.6k for what looks like it could be a good car? I know the 6.9 complicates things but then the equivalent in 108 body is the 6.3 and they have long taken off. R129 maybe because they surely are bottomed out but I don't see them moving in 2019 - still too many available - would pick 'non alloy' engined R107 to move before those. Was reading something last year about C107 prices in UK.... maybe? All the later stuff, including R129, AMG's mentioned I shy away from for complexity and maintenance, but then i am getting to the older and decreasing side of the 'market' and maybe this is their year for you young blokes that understand all that computer trickery! But on that same basis of the shifting age of the market I am with some urgency wanting to get out of vintage cars.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by John Green » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 9:50 am

"So you had some spare time lately to gaze into your crystal ball, now which MB model has bottomed out and now heading northward in value? We know a few have already but what’s your pick for 2019?"
With prices on the W111 coupes and to some extent the W107 coupes going skywards, I think the W114 and W123 coupes are the next big thing. Doubt there going to go crazy anytime soon, but think that if you brought a good one and spent money making it right would be a good investment.

The other shift in the market is the long awaited realization that cars "are only original once" so buying an original car and keeping it that way will reap dividends, no matter what model it is.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by KimB » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 10:49 am

Here's my usual unbiased opinion.......

Any W126 in good condition!

It was and remains Mercedes Benz's top selling S Class model, with 892,096 units sold including the saloon coupes. It also had the longest production run of 12 years.
https://moneyinc.com/top-10-mercedes-models/
:wav:

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am

I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules. I've personally mainly worked on newer cars and the electronics are rarely ever an issue and when they are extremely easy to fix thanks to the new generation of scan tools. So if that is what is stopping you from working on newer cars move on as it will be the only thing that you usually don't have to ever work on.

What will drive you guys crazy is the amount of cheap/crappy parts in modern cars that wear out extremely early. Diff's/Driveshafts lasting 200,000KMs, forget it, suspension will pretty much require full replacement at 100,000KM's if not earlier. Rattles galore by 100,000KM, pealing scratchy interiors by 60,000KMs. Random sensors dying all over the shop. Oil leaks, oil consumption etc etc etc Not only do they not build them like they use to, it's not even on the same planet. The older mercs were cars you could literally keep forever, if you maintained them right they still felt solid no matter the mileage. New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by KimB » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:34 pm

aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules. I've personally mainly worked on newer cars and the electronics are rarely ever an issue and when they are extremely easy to fix thanks to the new generation of scan tools. So if that is what is stopping you from working on newer cars move on as it will be the only thing that you usually don't have to ever work on.

What will drive you guys crazy is the amount of cheap/crappy parts in modern cars that wear out extremely early. Diff's/Driveshafts lasting 200,000KMs, forget it, suspension will pretty much require full replacement at 100,000KM's if not earlier. Rattles galore by 100,000KM, pealing scratchy interiors by 60,000KMs. Random sensors dying all over the shop. Oil leaks, oil consumption etc etc etc Not only do they not build them like they use to, it's not even on the same planet. The older mercs were cars you could literally keep forever, if you maintained them right they still felt solid no matter the mileage. New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
OK so I get my scan tools for my "newer" Mercedes, but then there's nothing left to scan because the rest of the car has fallen to pieces!
Ha ha! I rest my case!
Last edited by KimB on Wed 09 Jan, 2019 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by John Green » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:44 pm

aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules.

New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
:laughing5: :laughing6: :laughing5:

Being able to read the fault codes is not the issue. The issue surrounds the main control modules that are coded to the chassis number of the car. If we use KimB's favorite model, you can take every electronic control module out of it and stick them in a differant car. The same idea doesn't work on many modern cars. The first car we saw this on was the W168 A class launched here in 1998, if the engine control module dies and can't be repaired, they you have to either scrap the car or pay the MB stealership price for a new module, as they are the only ones who can supply them precoded to the car. I rest my case.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by KimB » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 4:50 pm

John Green wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:44 pm
aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules.

New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
:laughing5: :laughing6: :laughing5:

Being able to read the fault codes is not the issue. The issue surrounds the main control modules that are coded to the chassis number of the car. If we use KimB's favorite model, you can take every electronic control module out of it and stick them in a differant car. The same idea doesn't work on many modern cars. The first car we saw this on was the W168 A class launched here in 1998, if the engine control module dies and can't be repaired, they you have to either scrap the car or pay the MB stealership price for a new module, as they are the only ones who can supply them precoded to the car. I rest my case.
W126's just keep going on and on and on and on......Oops sorry, couldn't resist! :laughing6:
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by 420 SE » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 6:16 pm

John Green wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:44 pm
aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules.

New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
:laughing5: :laughing6: :laughing5:

Being able to read the fault codes is not the issue. The issue surrounds the main control modules that are coded to the chassis number of the car. If we use KimB's favorite model, you can take every electronic control module out of it and stick them in a differant car. The same idea doesn't work on many modern cars. The first car we saw this on was the W168 A class launched here in 1998, if the engine control module dies and can't be repaired, they you have to either scrap the car or pay the MB stealership price for a new module, as they are the only ones who can supply them precoded to the car. I rest my case.
Indeed, that is what killed off my old ML (the heat here just kills the modules after about ten years). The transmission module died and we were quoted almost $17000 USD to replace - the car was worth $20000USD at best. RIP...
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Djenka018 » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:42 pm

I'm pessimistic.
Most of the cars will become too old for gen X and Y to bother at all. If one cannot collect enough experience points, have to actually make hand dirty to maintain it... why bother... get a new model at the next Easter sale.
I am of the view that with the ascent of the electrified motor culture - liquid fuel cars will suffer the fate of the steam engine vehicles.
Not overnight thou

OTOH, PnP electric modules for well designed chassis' could make those cars attractive for Smash Avo sandwitch generation.
That would make it redundant if the original engine was 6.9 or 280S. Condition would command stronger than it does today.

If I had space I would buy another 280SE in a blink. I still regret selling the Brown Girl 280SE I had.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Ivanerrol » Thu 10 Jan, 2019 9:57 am

The young generations will just go on and buy new cars :

One in 5 Millennials expect to die in debt
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/1-in-5- ... t-off.html

As long as there is credit available

As far as sleepers.
They made more than 800,000 W126's.. They're not like W123 - as highly desirable by mid eastern and African countries. More W126's will die out.
Available Good W140's are far and few between - even though 400,000 plus were made.

Check this on John's site : https://www.mbspares.com.au/Cars/SL500-Convertible.aspx
A 2003, W230 SL500 with 64K's on the clock for $39,990

Or this : https://www.mbspares.com.au/Cars/560SL-Convertible.aspx

A 1989, W107 560Sl with 228,800K's on the clock for $85,000.

I don't think the W230 will ever make a $85K price for many years to come.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by CraigB » Fri 11 Jan, 2019 8:08 pm

All those W126's made works against the supply side of the good investment equation, but then good cars and JG observation about value of nice original cars.

And i really really want to believe what Alesk is saying about electronics, and old as i may be i can still change and go out and get myself a scan tool, but I still keep seeing comments on the various forums like that of Ross. But agreed, its not just the electronics, its all the other mechanical stuff. I still think of that low mileage c class that Ivanerrol had with all the suspension issues.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by brycedunn » Fri 11 Jan, 2019 8:57 pm

I guess the question was more about what models have bottomed out vs what models might increase. While I agree that models like W108s and C126's will probably increase, I would argue they bottomed out some years ago.

I would point to the W124 Sedan as the model that is now bottoming out. There really isn't much lower for these to go and as the really bad ones fall by the wayside, nicer ones will start to rise in price. The Coupe and the wagon bottomed out a few years ago, but I think the sedan is now. I also think the R129 (outside special models like the V12s) is about there too.

The W201 2.0 is probably similar, but the 2.6 and the 2.3-16 bottomed out a few years ago.

Some of the other suggestions, I would say W123's bottomed out in the mid 2000s, you used to find really good 123's for less than $3k. That money now buys you a pretty rough example. W126 and W116 bottomed out a while ago, but W140's will probably fall more.

The newer models like the W210 have further to go. I don't predict values will be kind to the W210 outside the AMGs.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Mon 14 Jan, 2019 12:00 pm

KimB wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:34 pm
aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules. I've personally mainly worked on newer cars and the electronics are rarely ever an issue and when they are extremely easy to fix thanks to the new generation of scan tools. So if that is what is stopping you from working on newer cars move on as it will be the only thing that you usually don't have to ever work on.

What will drive you guys crazy is the amount of cheap/crappy parts in modern cars that wear out extremely early. Diff's/Driveshafts lasting 200,000KMs, forget it, suspension will pretty much require full replacement at 100,000KM's if not earlier. Rattles galore by 100,000KM, pealing scratchy interiors by 60,000KMs. Random sensors dying all over the shop. Oil leaks, oil consumption etc etc etc Not only do they not build them like they use to, it's not even on the same planet. The older mercs were cars you could literally keep forever, if you maintained them right they still felt solid no matter the mileage. New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
OK so I get my scan tools for my "newer" Mercedes, but then there's nothing left to scan because the rest of the car has fallen to pieces!
Ha ha! I rest my case!
Pretty much sums it up :D

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Mon 14 Jan, 2019 12:04 pm

John Green wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:44 pm
aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules.

New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
:laughing5: :laughing6: :laughing5:

Being able to read the fault codes is not the issue. The issue surrounds the main control modules that are coded to the chassis number of the car. If we use KimB's favorite model, you can take every electronic control module out of it and stick them in a differant car. The same idea doesn't work on many modern cars. The first car we saw this on was the W168 A class launched here in 1998, if the engine control module dies and can't be repaired, they you have to either scrap the car or pay the MB stealership price for a new module, as they are the only ones who can supply them precoded to the car. I rest my case.
This is partially true, what I'm getting is that today (Although I'm obviously not a full time mechanic so i can't comment on real statistics) the computer modules fail rarely, it's everything else that is the issue. Yes many things are coded to the chassis but all us back yard mechanics can get plenty of "questionable" software online that will code these modules outside the stealership. Obviously a reputable shop probably doesn't want to go down this route. My main point being from my experience (And its limited, lets say maybe 5-8 cars so far) I've never had an issue with any module or electrics, it was literally everything else that had issues. And worse case scenario you can still by a module and go to the stealership for coding, I'm sure they will charge you $150-$300 to do it, but it's not the end of the world.

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Mon 14 Jan, 2019 12:09 pm

CraigB wrote:
Fri 11 Jan, 2019 8:08 pm
All those W126's made works against the supply side of the good investment equation, but then good cars and JG observation about value of nice original cars.

And i really really want to believe what Alesk is saying about electronics, and old as i may be i can still change and go out and get myself a scan tool, but I still keep seeing comments on the various forums like that of Ross. But agreed, its not just the electronics, its all the other mechanical stuff. I still think of that low mileage c class that Ivanerrol had with all the suspension issues.
Ivanerorol with the w204 suspension issues is the perfect example of what I'm talking about these days. Whatever you need in modules $$$ these days say in a 10 year ownership period, will be nothing what you will spend on mechanical repairs. I myself am out of the german game and have bought myself a new Hyundai i30 as a run about. I just can't be bothered with modern german cars. I would honestly tell anyone thinking of getting a used one to not get anything with more than 40,000Km's on the clock so you can actually enjoy the car to some degree.

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