Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

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CraigB
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Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by CraigB » Tue 08 Jan, 2019 4:14 pm

This is actually a question from Giles on the facebook page....... but after being told categorically the only W116 worth collecting is the 6.9..... I remembered how much i like conversing on here! Also I can't seem to communicate in two word sentences like most people do on facebook!

"So you had some spare time lately to gaze into your crystal ball, now which MB model has bottomed out and now heading northward in value? We know a few have already but what’s your pick for 2019?"

This is the long version of my answer that i cut down for facebook:

Supply and demand and of course the car has to be desirable enough in the first place that people want one. And its not just a model, its condition also. So C126 or even 108 mentioned, there are still plenty of them around but proper good ones are definitely hard to find as reflected by peoples accounts of searching and of course how much it costs to fix things. But then there will still be plenty of demand for even a crappy W113. But the original question is what will be different, what will move differently in 2019. And not putting numbers on it - if a reasonable W116 is $5k and doubles to $10k, its a bit different to a Pagoda going from $150 to 300k! But I remember when 108's 'moved' and one day seemed like plenty of good cars could be had for sub $5k and then they quietly disappeared and then reappeared closer at more like $10k being the mark. So I'll say W116, but it won't make your rich! I bought a non-runner for less than the value of its parts (but for a particular part i wanted), got it running and its not a bad car at all - but then researched if it was worth me spending a bit of time on and i agree - very few of them around and some very cheap good looking cars. These are a grand old car with a feel of their own - what's a 3.5 W108 selling for? Even a good 560SEL.... so why is the only 450SEL on car sales asking $6.6k for what looks like it could be a good car? I know the 6.9 complicates things but then the equivalent in 108 body is the 6.3 and they have long taken off. R129 maybe because they surely are bottomed out but I don't see them moving in 2019 - still too many available - would pick 'non alloy' engined R107 to move before those. Was reading something last year about C107 prices in UK.... maybe? All the later stuff, including R129, AMG's mentioned I shy away from for complexity and maintenance, but then i am getting to the older and decreasing side of the 'market' and maybe this is their year for you young blokes that understand all that computer trickery! But on that same basis of the shifting age of the market I am with some urgency wanting to get out of vintage cars.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by John Green » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 9:50 am

"So you had some spare time lately to gaze into your crystal ball, now which MB model has bottomed out and now heading northward in value? We know a few have already but what’s your pick for 2019?"
With prices on the W111 coupes and to some extent the W107 coupes going skywards, I think the W114 and W123 coupes are the next big thing. Doubt there going to go crazy anytime soon, but think that if you brought a good one and spent money making it right would be a good investment.

The other shift in the market is the long awaited realization that cars "are only original once" so buying an original car and keeping it that way will reap dividends, no matter what model it is.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by KimB » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 10:49 am

Here's my usual unbiased opinion.......

Any W126 in good condition!

It was and remains Mercedes Benz's top selling S Class model, with 892,096 units sold including the saloon coupes. It also had the longest production run of 12 years.
https://moneyinc.com/top-10-mercedes-models/
:wav:

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am

I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules. I've personally mainly worked on newer cars and the electronics are rarely ever an issue and when they are extremely easy to fix thanks to the new generation of scan tools. So if that is what is stopping you from working on newer cars move on as it will be the only thing that you usually don't have to ever work on.

What will drive you guys crazy is the amount of cheap/crappy parts in modern cars that wear out extremely early. Diff's/Driveshafts lasting 200,000KMs, forget it, suspension will pretty much require full replacement at 100,000KM's if not earlier. Rattles galore by 100,000KM, pealing scratchy interiors by 60,000KMs. Random sensors dying all over the shop. Oil leaks, oil consumption etc etc etc Not only do they not build them like they use to, it's not even on the same planet. The older mercs were cars you could literally keep forever, if you maintained them right they still felt solid no matter the mileage. New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by KimB » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:34 pm

aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules. I've personally mainly worked on newer cars and the electronics are rarely ever an issue and when they are extremely easy to fix thanks to the new generation of scan tools. So if that is what is stopping you from working on newer cars move on as it will be the only thing that you usually don't have to ever work on.

What will drive you guys crazy is the amount of cheap/crappy parts in modern cars that wear out extremely early. Diff's/Driveshafts lasting 200,000KMs, forget it, suspension will pretty much require full replacement at 100,000KM's if not earlier. Rattles galore by 100,000KM, pealing scratchy interiors by 60,000KMs. Random sensors dying all over the shop. Oil leaks, oil consumption etc etc etc Not only do they not build them like they use to, it's not even on the same planet. The older mercs were cars you could literally keep forever, if you maintained them right they still felt solid no matter the mileage. New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
OK so I get my scan tools for my "newer" Mercedes, but then there's nothing left to scan because the rest of the car has fallen to pieces!
Ha ha! I rest my case!
Last edited by KimB on Wed 09 Jan, 2019 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by John Green » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:44 pm

aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules.

New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
:laughing5: :laughing6: :laughing5:

Being able to read the fault codes is not the issue. The issue surrounds the main control modules that are coded to the chassis number of the car. If we use KimB's favorite model, you can take every electronic control module out of it and stick them in a differant car. The same idea doesn't work on many modern cars. The first car we saw this on was the W168 A class launched here in 1998, if the engine control module dies and can't be repaired, they you have to either scrap the car or pay the MB stealership price for a new module, as they are the only ones who can supply them precoded to the car. I rest my case.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by KimB » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 4:50 pm

John Green wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:44 pm
aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules.

New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
:laughing5: :laughing6: :laughing5:

Being able to read the fault codes is not the issue. The issue surrounds the main control modules that are coded to the chassis number of the car. If we use KimB's favorite model, you can take every electronic control module out of it and stick them in a differant car. The same idea doesn't work on many modern cars. The first car we saw this on was the W168 A class launched here in 1998, if the engine control module dies and can't be repaired, they you have to either scrap the car or pay the MB stealership price for a new module, as they are the only ones who can supply them precoded to the car. I rest my case.
W126's just keep going on and on and on and on......Oops sorry, couldn't resist! :laughing6:
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by 420 SE » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 6:16 pm

John Green wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:44 pm
aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules.

New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
:laughing5: :laughing6: :laughing5:

Being able to read the fault codes is not the issue. The issue surrounds the main control modules that are coded to the chassis number of the car. If we use KimB's favorite model, you can take every electronic control module out of it and stick them in a differant car. The same idea doesn't work on many modern cars. The first car we saw this on was the W168 A class launched here in 1998, if the engine control module dies and can't be repaired, they you have to either scrap the car or pay the MB stealership price for a new module, as they are the only ones who can supply them precoded to the car. I rest my case.
Indeed, that is what killed off my old ML (the heat here just kills the modules after about ten years). The transmission module died and we were quoted almost $17000 USD to replace - the car was worth $20000USD at best. RIP...
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Djenka018 » Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:42 pm

I'm pessimistic.
Most of the cars will become too old for gen X and Y to bother at all. If one cannot collect enough experience points, have to actually make hand dirty to maintain it... why bother... get a new model at the next Easter sale.
I am of the view that with the ascent of the electrified motor culture - liquid fuel cars will suffer the fate of the steam engine vehicles.
Not overnight thou

OTOH, PnP electric modules for well designed chassis' could make those cars attractive for Smash Avo sandwitch generation.
That would make it redundant if the original engine was 6.9 or 280S. Condition would command stronger than it does today.

If I had space I would buy another 280SE in a blink. I still regret selling the Brown Girl 280SE I had.
t went like Ben Johnson in 1988 Olympics.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Ivanerrol » Thu 10 Jan, 2019 9:57 am

The young generations will just go on and buy new cars :

One in 5 Millennials expect to die in debt
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/1-in-5- ... t-off.html

As long as there is credit available

As far as sleepers.
They made more than 800,000 W126's.. They're not like W123 - as highly desirable by mid eastern and African countries. More W126's will die out.
Available Good W140's are far and few between - even though 400,000 plus were made.

Check this on John's site : https://www.mbspares.com.au/Cars/SL500-Convertible.aspx
A 2003, W230 SL500 with 64K's on the clock for $39,990

Or this : https://www.mbspares.com.au/Cars/560SL-Convertible.aspx

A 1989, W107 560Sl with 228,800K's on the clock for $85,000.

I don't think the W230 will ever make a $85K price for many years to come.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by CraigB » Fri 11 Jan, 2019 8:08 pm

All those W126's made works against the supply side of the good investment equation, but then good cars and JG observation about value of nice original cars.

And i really really want to believe what Alesk is saying about electronics, and old as i may be i can still change and go out and get myself a scan tool, but I still keep seeing comments on the various forums like that of Ross. But agreed, its not just the electronics, its all the other mechanical stuff. I still think of that low mileage c class that Ivanerrol had with all the suspension issues.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by brycedunn » Fri 11 Jan, 2019 8:57 pm

I guess the question was more about what models have bottomed out vs what models might increase. While I agree that models like W108s and C126's will probably increase, I would argue they bottomed out some years ago.

I would point to the W124 Sedan as the model that is now bottoming out. There really isn't much lower for these to go and as the really bad ones fall by the wayside, nicer ones will start to rise in price. The Coupe and the wagon bottomed out a few years ago, but I think the sedan is now. I also think the R129 (outside special models like the V12s) is about there too.

The W201 2.0 is probably similar, but the 2.6 and the 2.3-16 bottomed out a few years ago.

Some of the other suggestions, I would say W123's bottomed out in the mid 2000s, you used to find really good 123's for less than $3k. That money now buys you a pretty rough example. W126 and W116 bottomed out a while ago, but W140's will probably fall more.

The newer models like the W210 have further to go. I don't predict values will be kind to the W210 outside the AMGs.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Mon 14 Jan, 2019 12:00 pm

KimB wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:34 pm
aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules. I've personally mainly worked on newer cars and the electronics are rarely ever an issue and when they are extremely easy to fix thanks to the new generation of scan tools. So if that is what is stopping you from working on newer cars move on as it will be the only thing that you usually don't have to ever work on.

What will drive you guys crazy is the amount of cheap/crappy parts in modern cars that wear out extremely early. Diff's/Driveshafts lasting 200,000KMs, forget it, suspension will pretty much require full replacement at 100,000KM's if not earlier. Rattles galore by 100,000KM, pealing scratchy interiors by 60,000KMs. Random sensors dying all over the shop. Oil leaks, oil consumption etc etc etc Not only do they not build them like they use to, it's not even on the same planet. The older mercs were cars you could literally keep forever, if you maintained them right they still felt solid no matter the mileage. New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
OK so I get my scan tools for my "newer" Mercedes, but then there's nothing left to scan because the rest of the car has fallen to pieces!
Ha ha! I rest my case!
Pretty much sums it up :D

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Mon 14 Jan, 2019 12:04 pm

John Green wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 12:44 pm
aleks001 wrote:
Wed 09 Jan, 2019 11:22 am
I think all you "oldies" :P Need to stop worrying about electronics if that is what is stopping you getting into newer cars. You can get $250 scan tools these days that will read all modules in the car and clear all modules.

New cars feel like crap buckets at 100,000KM's.
:laughing5: :laughing6: :laughing5:

Being able to read the fault codes is not the issue. The issue surrounds the main control modules that are coded to the chassis number of the car. If we use KimB's favorite model, you can take every electronic control module out of it and stick them in a differant car. The same idea doesn't work on many modern cars. The first car we saw this on was the W168 A class launched here in 1998, if the engine control module dies and can't be repaired, they you have to either scrap the car or pay the MB stealership price for a new module, as they are the only ones who can supply them precoded to the car. I rest my case.
This is partially true, what I'm getting is that today (Although I'm obviously not a full time mechanic so i can't comment on real statistics) the computer modules fail rarely, it's everything else that is the issue. Yes many things are coded to the chassis but all us back yard mechanics can get plenty of "questionable" software online that will code these modules outside the stealership. Obviously a reputable shop probably doesn't want to go down this route. My main point being from my experience (And its limited, lets say maybe 5-8 cars so far) I've never had an issue with any module or electrics, it was literally everything else that had issues. And worse case scenario you can still by a module and go to the stealership for coding, I'm sure they will charge you $150-$300 to do it, but it's not the end of the world.

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Mon 14 Jan, 2019 12:09 pm

CraigB wrote:
Fri 11 Jan, 2019 8:08 pm
All those W126's made works against the supply side of the good investment equation, but then good cars and JG observation about value of nice original cars.

And i really really want to believe what Alesk is saying about electronics, and old as i may be i can still change and go out and get myself a scan tool, but I still keep seeing comments on the various forums like that of Ross. But agreed, its not just the electronics, its all the other mechanical stuff. I still think of that low mileage c class that Ivanerrol had with all the suspension issues.
Ivanerorol with the w204 suspension issues is the perfect example of what I'm talking about these days. Whatever you need in modules $$$ these days say in a 10 year ownership period, will be nothing what you will spend on mechanical repairs. I myself am out of the german game and have bought myself a new Hyundai i30 as a run about. I just can't be bothered with modern german cars. I would honestly tell anyone thinking of getting a used one to not get anything with more than 40,000Km's on the clock so you can actually enjoy the car to some degree.

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by TheMadRacoon » Fri 25 Jan, 2019 6:28 pm

I think another problem with modern cars, especially 'luxury' cars is the (lack of) maintenance lavished on them, either ny first or 2nd owners. The cost at stealerships can drive people to just skip maintenance. Many owners are loaned/leased to the hilt and probably prefer it like that...all the gadgets and status are irresistible. No wonder the depreciation is so savage nowadays.

But back to the topic: I vote original SLCs. The only factor against them is low demand. Perhaps the Gen Ys and younger will take to these: odd, somewhat modern yet from a different era. Surely worth more than an old Datsun!
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Ivanerrol » Sat 26 Jan, 2019 9:52 am

It seems any pre 1970's Benz is now creeping up in value. Even base models.

SLC's will have their day. Coupe W123's are already starting to appreciate.

Datsun's are cult cars
W211 - E240
W204 - C280
Departed
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W111 220s (Indonesia) 4 speed manual column shift
W123 230
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W140 420SEL
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by matthewz108 » Sun 27 Jan, 2019 7:21 am

For me it's a little like house prices... if we own one, we all want them to go up, but i feel sorry for the younger generation that will miss out in the opportunity to own and drive older cars, or maybe it's true - they just won't be interested in it?

I've been watching a Jerry Seinfeld series on Netflix where he takes comedians out in an old car to get a coffee (sounds boring but it's actually really good), but it's been interesting to see who enjoys which episodes more - for me its generally the cars, but for the kids it's the comedians...

I think it's just natural that any model that is special, i.e. low manufacture numbers, and even better is original and unmolested will go up in value eventually. It's just a matter of finding one that fits that criteria, you enjoy to look at/drive, and won't cost more than it's worth to maintain.

My bet of bottomed out values are w123 and w126 models, although I too am scared to buy anything much newer to keep long term....
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by tsharkey » Mon 28 Jan, 2019 12:15 am

I was given a W123 300D in November last year so I claim it to have reached rock bottom. In rounding up parts for it, there is a example of 230E at Upillit Elizabeth and another one arrived at Pick-a-Part Kilsyth which body wise appear to be in tip top condition. John G has one at MB Spares with a blown motor, uneconomic to repair. So whilst the economics stay in that state, they are at the bottom.

That said, look at CarSales and Gumtree and some are now fetching good $ (not in the league of R107 etc). I kinda have the market corned in Vic so am hoping the invisible hand of the market means a lack of supply drives up prices - means I can retire selling off the fleet ...
W123 1981 300TD - Family Kid mover
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W123 1984 300TD English 5 Speed Manual
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Tue 29 Jan, 2019 11:42 am

I also caution people on looking at gumtree and carsales for price guides to a degree as there are many cars that are asking way to much. I've seen clean w126's ask for 20K+ and not just one buy a couple and someone might look at that and go, oh hey, these have gone up, but then you realise two years later that they are still for sale. People tend to ask for silly prices when they think they can or when cars get older but whether there is a buyer for them or not is a whole other story. A good example of this is a Recently sold an E90 BMW, it was the cleanest one for sale and I priced it lower then everyone on carsales by $500 as I wanted a quick sale for $9000. 6 months later after not a single person even enquirer I ended selling it for $6500 and all the E90's that were also asking for $9000 are still for sale to this day. So be very careful with sale sites as indications of a cars value.

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by KimB » Tue 29 Jan, 2019 6:03 pm

aleks001 wrote:
Tue 29 Jan, 2019 11:42 am
I also caution people on looking at gumtree and carsales for price guides to a degree as there are many cars that are asking way to much. I've seen clean w126's ask for 20K+ and not just one buy a couple and someone might look at that and go, oh hey, these have gone up, but then you realise two years later that they are still for sale. People tend to ask for silly prices when they think they can or when cars get older but whether there is a buyer for them or not is a whole other story. A good example of this is a Recently sold an E90 BMW, it was the cleanest one for sale and I priced it lower then everyone on carsales by $500 as I wanted a quick sale for $9000. 6 months later after not a single person even enquirer I ended selling it for $6500 and all the E90's that were also asking for $9000 are still for sale to this day. So be very careful with sale sites as indications of a cars value.
Quite right Mr Aleks! Don't rely on sales sites as they are full of dreamers!

My best indicator of W126 values is the increasing depth of diamond dust that sits on top of our two cars, which we have to sweep off each morning before driving off! :laughing5:
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by CraigB » Wed 30 Jan, 2019 10:54 am

And of course the converse of that is just because you have seen a number of W126 for $2000, don't assume that is the value. Its all about condition and yet you always seem to read "a BMW xyz is worth $9k or 6.5k based on the sale of a particular car. The $9k cars may have been passed over because they were all actually $15k cars because they needed $6k of work etc. - not hard to spend that sort of money on a car these days. Although i take the point that the price didn't even get calls. If people see a range of values and they are buying they want it to be the low value and opposite for sellers. But its all supply and demand - if demand was greater for the BMW, even at the higher price someone would have looked even if they tried to push the price down. I do agree though to not go by asking prices - auctions are probably the best guide, but even then, you have to correlate the condition of that particular car. Labour rates and parts are so much these days that the 'cheap cars' are the most expensive if you are serious about wanting a good reliable car. And yet i often feel forums like this have more people talking down values of good cars rather than talking about all the costs once you buy a dodgy car and trying to get it right and how valuable those unique 'do nothing' cars are. I've just bought a truly lovely gem of a car and yet having gone over it, replacement parts and time (particularly if i put it into a shop to do the work) has the real price heading towards double - and yet it was still a bargain for all the great things about the car that i don't have to do and I have bought at a point where a number of normal 'maintenance' type things have happened. If you saw the car advertised and it sold you would probably think that is what a great car is worth but the reality is the real price was more. To be honest (and the seller is a forum member) at first I thought the price was on the low side (but exactly what was asked for) but now I think i paid the right price and actually makes me feel pretty good and still really pleased at getting the basis of what will be a pretty much perfect car and the best of its type.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by John Green » Wed 30 Jan, 2019 1:06 pm

aleks001 wrote:
Tue 29 Jan, 2019 11:42 am
I also caution people on looking at gumtree and carsales for price guides to a degree as there are many cars that are asking way to much. I've seen clean w126's ask for 20K+ and not just one buy a couple and someone might look at that and go, oh hey, these have gone up, but then you realise two years later that they are still for sale. So be very careful with sale sites as indications of a cars value.
These is another market that dictates price that you have not mentioned and it is even harder to monitor in terms of valuing cars. Easily 70-80% of all cars I have sold in the last 3 years have been by word of mouth. I sold the 300D below for a significant sum 6 months ago. The general public didn't know it was for sale and how much it sold for. My E220 cabriolet would be another example as I have multiple people lining up to buy, it, but I are not interested in selling it at this stage.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Wed 30 Jan, 2019 11:16 pm

CraigB wrote:
Wed 30 Jan, 2019 10:54 am
And of course the converse of that is just because you have seen a number of W126 for $2000, don't assume that is the value. Its all about condition and yet you always seem to read "a BMW xyz is worth $9k or 6.5k based on the sale of a particular car. The $9k cars may have been passed over because they were all actually $15k cars because they needed $6k of work etc. - not hard to spend that sort of money on a car these days. Although i take the point that the price didn't even get calls. If people see a range of values and they are buying they want it to be the low value and opposite for sellers. But its all supply and demand - if demand was greater for the BMW, even at the higher price someone would have looked even if they tried to push the price down. I do agree though to not go by asking prices - auctions are probably the best guide, but even then, you have to correlate the condition of that particular car. Labour rates and parts are so much these days that the 'cheap cars' are the most expensive if you are serious about wanting a good reliable car. And yet i often feel forums like this have more people talking down values of good cars rather than talking about all the costs once you buy a dodgy car and trying to get it right and how valuable those unique 'do nothing' cars are. I've just bought a truly lovely gem of a car and yet having gone over it, replacement parts and time (particularly if i put it into a shop to do the work) has the real price heading towards double - and yet it was still a bargain for all the great things about the car that i don't have to do and I have bought at a point where a number of normal 'maintenance' type things have happened. If you saw the car advertised and it sold you would probably think that is what a great car is worth but the reality is the real price was more. To be honest (and the seller is a forum member) at first I thought the price was on the low side (but exactly what was asked for) but now I think i paid the right price and actually makes me feel pretty good and still really pleased at getting the basis of what will be a pretty much perfect car and the best of its type.
Well let me put it this way to you from someone who has sold quite a few cars from different makes. German= hard to sell, Japanese/Korean = easy to sell. All the non German cars I've sold have only lasted a month on average, I price all my cars well as I don't like they sitting around and I'm not fussed about a $1000 up or down. The German cars have all been 4-6 month sales again with good pricing. You have two issues with German cars.
1. Older German cars - 99% of the population don't want an old car to start of with and the ones that do want an old car want something that will be hopefully cheap to run, they won't even consider a German car. So you're really left only with enthusiasts.

2. Newer German cars - Hard to sell because even used they are still demanding $20-$40K and the vast majority of people out there don't have this lying around in cash and will finance, out of pure laziness/continence they will just go to a dealer and sort it all out in one place. This applies to Japanese and Korean cars that are used and cost more then roughly $10K I have found.

A great example of this is there is a used car dealer called supamerc which for god knows how long has only been selling used German cars, the other day I drove past the stealership and although there are still some German cars there the vast majority have been replaced with used Japanese SUV's.

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Wed 30 Jan, 2019 11:18 pm

John Green wrote:
Wed 30 Jan, 2019 1:06 pm
aleks001 wrote:
Tue 29 Jan, 2019 11:42 am
I also caution people on looking at gumtree and carsales for price guides to a degree as there are many cars that are asking way to much. I've seen clean w126's ask for 20K+ and not just one buy a couple and someone might look at that and go, oh hey, these have gone up, but then you realise two years later that they are still for sale. So be very careful with sale sites as indications of a cars value.
These is another market that dictates price that you have not mentioned and it is even harder to monitor in terms of valuing cars. Easily 70-80% of all cars I have sold in the last 3 years have been by word of mouth. I sold the 300D below for a significant sum 6 months ago. The general public didn't know it was for sale and how much it sold for. My E220 cabriolet would be another example as I have multiple people lining up to buy, it, but I are not interested in selling it at this stage.

20180430_113725.jpg
Couldn't agree more John, but this doesn't work for the vast majority of us private people. Your in the car industry and have a reputation that people trust so word of mouth will probably be the way that works for you but that doesn't apply to the majority of private sellers.

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by John Green » Fri 01 Feb, 2019 7:43 am

aleks001 wrote:
Wed 30 Jan, 2019 11:18 pm
John Green wrote:
Wed 30 Jan, 2019 1:06 pm
These is another market that dictates price that you have not mentioned and it is even harder to monitor in terms of valuing cars. Easily 70-80% of all cars I have sold in the last 3 years have been by word of mouth. I sold the 300D below for a significant sum 6 months ago. The general public didn't know it was for sale and how much it sold for. My E220 cabriolet would be another example as I have multiple people lining up to buy, it, but I are not interested in selling it at this stage.

20180430_113725.jpg
Couldn't agree more John, but this doesn't work for the vast majority of us private people. Your in the car industry and have a reputation that people trust so word of mouth will probably be the way that works for you but that doesn't apply to the majority of private sellers.
Not quite, I know of many cars that have changed hands in private sales over the years like this. The latest being a 450SLC with 7k on the odometer, as you can imagine there was a queue of people lining up to try and buy this one from the previous owner. My point does however only work with exceptional examples or rare examples.

We could move this conversation slightly to include what actually dictates the price. I would suggest that one factor is the real world selling prices of the exceptional examples as this is what all other examples of the model are judged by. If an awesome W123 is $25k, and has a record of one being sold for that figure (I am quoting a make believe example here) then all other W123 values are calculated based on that?
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by CraigB » Fri 01 Feb, 2019 8:32 am

My latest purchase another private example - Ozbenzer saw I was in the market for a car and he contacted me to see if i was interested in his excellent example - saves him going through a whole lot of tyre kickers and me sifting through and spending time and money filtering the usual poorly described problem cars that tend to be the older car market. I think another aspect of those private sales - the seller named a price he was happy with and i recognised as good value and a mates rate, so I just paid it - rather than the normal practice of 'seller said that price so i must be able to get it for at least 500 less'. There is usually a common respect in those private deals i reckon.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by aleks001 » Fri 01 Feb, 2019 4:47 pm

John Green wrote:
Fri 01 Feb, 2019 7:43 am
aleks001 wrote:
Wed 30 Jan, 2019 11:18 pm
John Green wrote:
Wed 30 Jan, 2019 1:06 pm
These is another market that dictates price that you have not mentioned and it is even harder to monitor in terms of valuing cars. Easily 70-80% of all cars I have sold in the last 3 years have been by word of mouth. I sold the 300D below for a significant sum 6 months ago. The general public didn't know it was for sale and how much it sold for. My E220 cabriolet would be another example as I have multiple people lining up to buy, it, but I are not interested in selling it at this stage.

20180430_113725.jpg
Couldn't agree more John, but this doesn't work for the vast majority of us private people. Your in the car industry and have a reputation that people trust so word of mouth will probably be the way that works for you but that doesn't apply to the majority of private sellers.
Not quite, I know of many cars that have changed hands in private sales over the years like this. The latest being a 450SLC with 7k on the odometer, as you can imagine there was a queue of people lining up to try and buy this one from the previous owner. My point does however only work with exceptional examples or rare examples.

We could move this conversation slightly to include what actually dictates the price. I would suggest that one factor is the real world selling prices of the exceptional examples as this is what all other examples of the model are judged by. If an awesome W123 is $25k, and has a record of one being sold for that figure (I am quoting a make believe example here) then all other W123 values are calculated based on that?
Couldn't agree more, it's just how the world works, the rarer or in the case cleaner/older the example is the easier it will be the sell for a decent amount, but getting such an example is hard.

What values are judged on is beyond me.

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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Giles » Wed 20 Feb, 2019 12:36 pm

If I may chime in and answer to my original question.
It would appear that the logic has already been discussed in the previous reply’s, that being rarity, condition and history of the car are the major factors. One other factor I’d like to add it where,geographically in the world, is the car going to fetch the best selling price. As we know the Australian market is small, fickle and somewhat biased towards where the car had been originally delivered. That is, would ever a UK delivered car or a LHD version ever achieve the world market price here. I think not. I know my 500SLC would fetch much more in Europe than here and that would be taking into account freight costs.
Anyway, the enough on that. The model range I’m now putting time and effort into in high quality examples of the W126, primarily the 420SEL’s. Regarded perhaps as the poor mans 560SEL they’re good value at the moment, even for good examples. I have purchased two of these recently along with a donor car that was worth it’s weight in gold.
One will serve a keeper and the other as resale once it serves its tour of duty.
The funny thing I learnt is good buyers with capital will pay good money for original, if that’s possible, examples, where as anything that has bolt on aftermarket accessories they avoid like it has a disease. Morale of my story is swap everything back to factory and sell off the aftermarket pieces to the retro modders.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by KimB » Wed 20 Feb, 2019 6:05 pm

Giles wrote:
Wed 20 Feb, 2019 12:36 pm
If I may chime in and answer to my original question.
It would appear that the logic has already been discussed in the previous reply’s, that being rarity, condition and history of the car are the major factors. One other factor I’d like to add it where,geographically in the world, is the car going to fetch the best selling price. As we know the Australian market is small, fickle and somewhat biased towards where the car had been originally delivered. That is, would ever a UK delivered car or a LHD version ever achieve the world market price here. I think not. I know my 500SLC would fetch much more in Europe than here and that would be taking into account freight costs.
Anyway, the enough on that. The model range I’m now putting time and effort into in high quality examples of the W126, primarily the 420SEL’s. Regarded perhaps as the poor mans 560SEL they’re good value at the moment, even for good examples. I have purchased two of these recently along with a donor car that was worth it’s weight in gold.
One will serve a keeper and the other as resale once it serves its tour of duty.
The funny thing I learnt is good buyers with capital will pay good money for original, if that’s possible, examples, where as anything that has bolt on aftermarket accessories they avoid like it has a disease. Morale of my story is swap everything back to factory and sell off the aftermarket pieces to the retro modders.
Gosh Mr Giles, I hadn't realised that you had entered the hallowed halls of the "Fellow W126 Nutters Society"! I thought you were a W123 admirer.
Does this mean you have a bust of Bruno Sacco on the mantle piece too? :cherry:
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Giles » Wed 20 Feb, 2019 7:18 pm

Yes KimB, I’ve been a W126’er previously but C114’s have
been my fetish for the past 7 years along with C107’s which are still my fav’s especially since purchase my 500SLC 2 1/2 years ago.
There is something words can’t describe about a good W126, those that owned one will testify to this. So being the shrewd buyer and seller I am put my buying power, or what little there is,into good as close to original versions. I found this to be the same for C107’s over the past few years and it’s tough finding a half decent one for sub $20K. I did a pre purchase inspection recently on a 380SLC but it did shape up for the money being asked. A nice looking car but it needed considerable money spent on it and then it wouldn’t have been worth the dollars invested. Well at least for quite some time anyway.
All that being said a good 420SEL is still obtainable for sub $10-K if your in the right place at the right time.
An example of
9EF38B76-C40E-40CB-803C-F20CC245F6DA.jpeg
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Giles » Wed 20 Feb, 2019 7:23 pm

A lesser example but with potential at half the price.
753E4A75-EFD1-40D1-9FD1-D08D3CE0EBFF.jpeg
With a very tidy interior and service history.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by T-Modell » Wed 20 Feb, 2019 9:38 pm

Or to sum it up:
you only get original "once".
Thomas
Last edited by T-Modell on Wed 20 Feb, 2019 10:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
---------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Giles » Wed 20 Feb, 2019 10:20 pm

Can you clarify that Thomas?
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by T-Modell » Wed 20 Feb, 2019 10:40 pm

Giles wrote:
Wed 20 Feb, 2019 10:20 pm
Can you clarify that Thomas?
Giles,
I put a smiley behind it ... I was just referring to the Math. Sorry, no offense intended! As it can obviously come across wrong, I delete it
Thomas
---------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Giles » Thu 21 Feb, 2019 12:25 am

Smiley or no smiley I am not in the business of capitalising on others loses. And yes I found your post unjust. Nothing personal, it’s just business.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by CraigB » Thu 21 Feb, 2019 12:26 pm

I didn't see the post and doesn't matter and so this is probably an unrelated point but still relevant to the thread ..............- if we talk about buying and selling of cars and their values, I get frustrated that the time and expertise that people put into cars is often ignored. I've seen Giles do lots of 'improvement' on cars and then turn them over and i would hope with some capital gain on the original investment, but then if you break down the returns on the time put in or what a professional rate would charge for that, people doing this are actually doing people a service and not taking advantage. I was really pleased to see a reasonable price for Nick's 280SE - bought for 2k i think it was and sold for 11k, but if you look at the condition and the documented work on this forum it was a labour of love and no profiteering. I honestly think the buyers got a bargain and yet Nick's comment was he was told by club members that you won't get that much - but they were wrong and I'm glad he sold to first lookers, obviously smart people, and he didn't have to endure a wave or tyre kickers and lowballers. I mean really, what are the chances of being able to find a car that you can just wash and drive and service and do nothing else and have that sort of condition and quality and for only 11k. Anyway, my frustration is only based on the comments made - I think the reality is that there is a relatively small market of people properly preparing cars, asking higher prices and buyers that recognise the value and happy to pay.

And getting to the point tying this all in to crystal balling..... the inputs are the costly bit and pretty much the same so its great to put that into the right car that demand goes up or supply down and rewards your inputs more.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by tsharkey » Thu 21 Feb, 2019 1:25 pm

The "free" W123 I brought up to scratch was a labour of love (for my son in case you were wondering) - Aside from the headlights (which I upgraded as I couldn't get good reflectors for the older style at a reasonable price), I put it back to 100% standard - not even a wood grain strip across the dash as 300Ds did not have them that year. Observers have suggested to me that it could be a good self funded retirement hobby. I could sell that car with RWC and its a no more to do, drive away proposition. But the time and parts that went into it is not worth the return I suspect I would get, however small. My ability to command a premium is also limited as I have no reputation or testimonials that would assure a potential buyer of the integrity of the purchase.

There is the occasional "image" buyer who has financial backing. When I had the trans done last year, at the MB Indies was a W123 wagon that was getting the full "bringing it back to scratch" overhaul - spare no expense (5 digit figures .....) It was a 21st gift the daughter said she wanted and her Dad was funding. They knew what they were getting and what support they would get post sale. I suspect the same is true for you John, that even tho that 300D was "not for sale", your brand and imprimatur contributed to the surety and integrity of the deal.

That's my view on the mundane W123 series. As much as I am in the W123 nutter club, they are no where near as interesting to potential buyers as a nice C126, SEL or C/R107.... or even the W114 or earlier. There is a wow factor that creates the premium on these cars, even if they are essentially, mechanically at least, the same car as a W123. The same time and parts may have yielded a nice return.
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Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Giles » Thu 21 Feb, 2019 3:39 pm

CraigB wrote:
Thu 21 Feb, 2019 12:26 pm
I didn't see the post and doesn't matter and so this is probably an unrelated point but still relevant to the thread ..............- if we talk about buying and selling of cars and their values, I get frustrated that the time and expertise that people put into cars is often ignored. I've seen Giles do lots of 'improvement' on cars and then turn them over and i would hope with some capital gain on the original investment, but then if you break down the returns on the time put in or what a professional rate would charge for that, people doing this are actually doing people a service.
Cheers Craig, the time and effort I don’t calculate into the factor, don’t need to pay GST or anyone else’s overheads either. Then there’s the sense of satisfaction and knowledge & excercise I get from from my projects. Of course there are the financial rewards plus GST offsets from purchasing parts & equipment. The sales of cars have contributed towards my two daughters private school education, subsidising their university studies and rent. Both of who now have uni degrees in nursing and teaching. The way I see it, I get to enjoy a passion, create happy customers and assist supplying parts to those that need parts at a reasonable price. I’m no Robin Hood nor do I wear tights nor don a cape I’m just doing what I enjoy.
I’ll be travelling next month in my Melb based W126 starting on the 3rd. Starting from Melb then around Tassie. Then back to Melb. on the Grand Prix weekend for a tour around both sides of Port Phillip Bay. If you spot a Impala Brown W126 give us a wave.
3B5BB5AF-87AB-439F-993C-26D206E708C4.jpeg
Cheers,
Giles
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1981 500SLC (Colour Black) Keeper car Lola
1975 280CE Signal Red Long term Project Ginger
1999 W163 ML430 MB Search & Rescue Vehicle Mary-Lou
1987 W126 420SEL Melb based long hauler Erwin

http://www.kudoscc.com.au

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Bartman4800
300 SLR
Posts: 2092
Joined: Fri 10 Oct, 2008 12:10 am
Model you own: w111
Location: Perth WA

Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Bartman4800 » Thu 21 Feb, 2019 4:48 pm

Giles,

I'm just a bit disappointed that we did not see you W126's for sale on Ozbenz. :boohoo:

You gotta give us a chance to buy a good example...

Bart
1963 220 Sb Sedan "Kermit" (Australian Assembly)
1960 220 Sb Sedan "Zum Schlachten" (Early German Assembly, with a torsion bar spring for the bonnet) - Stored in Country WA
1981 Subaru Brumby 1.8 with Weber and 5-speed box "little utie" - Sold to another enthusiast!
2006 Ford Focus "daily driver"
2002 VW Passat V6 30V Station Wagon (SOLD - This car into a money pit)
2011 Kia Sportage "Missus commuter Bus"
2002 Mitsubishi Rosa Bus (converting it to a motor home)

KimB
300 SLR
Posts: 1688
Joined: Thu 20 Dec, 2007 5:57 pm
Model you own: w126
Location: Sydney

Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by KimB » Thu 21 Feb, 2019 4:51 pm

That's a nice looking Impala Brown 420sel Giles!

We're going to Tassie in early April for our wedding anniversary plus catch up with our two daughters. So, we'll be a month apart in Tassie and I won't get to give you a wave! :wav:

Never mind, have a great time touring in the 420sel Giles.
Cheers,
Kim
W126 86 300SE Champagne
W126 84 380SEC Signal Red

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Giles
300 SL Gullwing
Posts: 3056
Joined: Mon 10 Nov, 2008 3:14 pm
Model you own: I own multiple different models
Location: Australind W.A.
Contact:

Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Giles » Thu 21 Feb, 2019 6:33 pm

Bartman4800 wrote:
Thu 21 Feb, 2019 4:48 pm
Giles,

I'm just a bit disappointed that we did not see you W126's for sale on Ozbenz. :boohoo:

You gotta give us a chance to buy a good example...

Bart
Not 4 sale as yet Bart.

Regards,
Giles
1981 500SLC (Colour Black) Keeper car Lola
1975 280CE Signal Red Long term Project Ginger
1999 W163 ML430 MB Search & Rescue Vehicle Mary-Lou
1987 W126 420SEL Melb based long hauler Erwin

http://www.kudoscc.com.au

User avatar
Giles
300 SL Gullwing
Posts: 3056
Joined: Mon 10 Nov, 2008 3:14 pm
Model you own: I own multiple different models
Location: Australind W.A.
Contact:

Re: Crystal balling 'sleepers' for 2019?

Post by Giles » Thu 21 Feb, 2019 6:40 pm

KimB wrote:
Thu 21 Feb, 2019 4:51 pm
That's a nice looking Impala Brown 420sel Giles!

We're going to Tassie in early April for our wedding anniversary plus catch up with our two daughters. So, we'll be a month apart in Tassie and I won't get to give you a wave! :wav:

Never mind, have a great time touring in the 420sel Giles.
Cheers,
Kim
Funny thing happened the day I bought the Impala Brown (his name is Erwin) one it got spotted and posted on an FB page. Small MB World out there but damn they got some eyes. An old mate spotted me towing the gold one home from Perth when I was flying under the radar, so you can run but not hide.
Regards,
Giles
1981 500SLC (Colour Black) Keeper car Lola
1975 280CE Signal Red Long term Project Ginger
1999 W163 ML430 MB Search & Rescue Vehicle Mary-Lou
1987 W126 420SEL Melb based long hauler Erwin

http://www.kudoscc.com.au

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